China can peak its energy-related CO2 emissions before 2030: Evidence from driving factors

Abstract

China has pledged to achieve the CO2 emissions peak by 2030. This study aims to ascertain whether China can meet its commitment by predicting CO2 emissions. Based on industrial structure, energy structure, and energy intensity data forecasted by appropriate time series models, this study uses the Monte Carlo method to simulate the pathway of GDP growth rates and predict the trajectory of China's CO2 emissions from 2021 to 2035. The results reveal a 43.60% probability that China's CO2 emissions have peaked at 10.55 Gt in 2021. Furthermore, it is highly probable that China will achieve its CO2 emissions peak between 2023 and 2028. As the peak year shifts from 2023 to 2028, the mean value of CO2 emissions peak increases from 10.56 Gt to 10.71 Gt. Finally, the study employs the LMDI method to analyze the contributions of different driving factors to the CO2 emissions peak. The results indicate that energy structure transformation will be the primary factor driving the CO2 emissions peak, demonstrating the importance of transiting to a low-carbon energy system.