Characterizing rural households’ livelihood vulnerability to climate change and extremes in Migori River Watershed, Kenya

Abstract

ABSTRACT Sub-Saharan Africa, of which Kenya is part, is considered the most vulnerable region to climate change impacts due to its dependence on rain-fed agriculture and natural resources. Since the rural livelihood systems in Kenya are expected to bear some of the worst effects of climate change, it is imperative to assess rural households’ vulnerability to climate change impacts to facilitate the development of adaptation strategies. Therefore, this paper determines the level and sources of households’ livelihood vulnerability to climate variability in the Migori River watershed, Kenya. The Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) framed within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) vulnerability framework (LVI-IPCC) was applied. A cross-sectional household survey conducted on 318 randomly selected households was used to assess how vulnerability differs across three watershed zones, upstream, midstream, and downstream. The LVI-IPCC scores were −0.047, −0.003, and 0.008 for the upstream, midstream, and downstream zones, respectively, with significant differences noted in the scores (ANOVA, p < 0.05). Findings indicate that while the livelihoods in all three zones showed moderate vulnerability to environmental and socio-economic stressors, there are notable variations between them. The downstream households exhibit the highest vulnerability, attributed to their lower adaptive capacity, increased exposure, and heightened sensitivity. Conversely, the upstream households demonstrate the least vulnerability compared to the other zones, owing to their lower sensitivity and exposure, as well as better adaptive capacity. Policy recommendations for reducing households’ exposure to climate risks and for strengthening their adaptive capacity are discussed.