Abstract
In topographically diverse highland terrain, socio-economic and environmental conditions can vary dramatically over relatively short distances. This presents a challenge for climate resilient development strategies, as exposure to climate variability and change, climate impacts, and adaptive capacity differ between communities located within common cultural and administrative units. The Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) framed within the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) vulnerability framework (LVI-IPCC) offers a tool to assess climate vulnerability through direct household surveys. This makes it particularly appropriate for analyses at sub-community and community scales. Here we apply the LVI-IPCC to communities of Choke Mountain, located in the Blue Nile Highlands of Ethiopia. Recognizing the physiographic and climatic diversity that exists in this mountainous environment, we implement LVI-IPCC analysis for 793 mixed crop-livestock farming households using the five distinct agroecological systems (AES) that compose the populated area of Choke Mountain as a framework for analysis. For each AES, an LVI index, adaptive capacity metric, and LVI-IPCC vulnerability score was calculated. We found that each of these metrics varied systematically across AES. High elevation sloping lands and low elevation steep lands exhibited relatively low adaptive capacity and high vulnerability while midland AES had higher capacity and lower vulnerability. These results suggest that resilience building interventions for Choke Mountain ecosystems should be targeted to address the specific circumstances of each AES. The approach of applying LVI-IPCC at AES scale could be applicable to other climate vulnerable mountainous regions.
Highlights
Ethiopia is frequently identified as a country that is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change (Parry et al 2007; WorldBank 2010; Conway and Schipper 2011)
P1⁄41N p where CFa is an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) contributing factor (exposure (E), sensitivity (S), or adaptive capacity (A)), f is the number of profiles associated with the contributing factor, and p is indexed to the profiles associated with the CF
For Choke Mountain, the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI)-IPCC analysis indicated that lowland and the extreme highland agroecological systems (AES) have the highest perceived exposure to climate stresses and the most limited adaptive capability
Summary
Ethiopia is frequently identified as a country that is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change (Parry et al 2007; WorldBank 2010; Conway and Schipper 2011). In the context of climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) adopts a variant of this definition, stated as “the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes” (IPCC 2007) In this definition, vulnerability is typically presented as a condition of three inter-related factors: exposure to impacts, sensitivity to impacts, and capacity to adapt to impacts (Snover et al 2007). Applying an AES-based generalization to household-level analysis allows us to map vulnerability profiles across the landscape This ability to generalize is critically important for adaptation planning, both because it makes it possible to exchange learning experiences across communities with similar vulnerability profiles and because it allows decision makers with broad geographic jurisdictions to understand patterns of vulnerability across relatively large areas
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