Abstract
Climate change is impacting climate sensitive rural livelihood systems. Exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of agricultural livelihoods to climate variability and change differ across agro-ecologies and these pose a challenge to climate resilient development strategy. This study assesses agro-ecology specific vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate change and variability in the Dabus Watershed (North-west Ethiopia), based on a survey of 734 farm households complemented with focus group discussion and key informant interviews. Recognizing the physiographic and climatic diversity that exists across agro-ecologies in the study area, Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) framed within the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) vulnerability framework (LVI-IPCC) is adapted to assess agro-ecology specific vulnerability in two local agro-ecologies, namely wet lowland and dry lowland. For each agro-ecology, exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity indices as well as LVI-IPCC vulnerability score was calculated. The result shows that the dry lowland agro-ecology has a relatively higher exposure and sensitivity to climate stresses with a comparatively limited adaptive capability. On the other hand, the wet lowland agro-ecology exhibits intermediate vulnerability with a relatively lower perceived exposure and higher adaptive capacity. Higher exposure relative to adaptive capacity resulted in a positive LVI-IPCC score in the dry lowland agro-ecology and positioned it in more vulnerable level than the wet lowland. A higher adaptive capacity relative to exposure unveils a negative LVI-IPCC score for the wet lowland agro-ecology and positioned it in a moderate vulnerability category. In line with the findings, there is a need to set agro-ecology specific priorities for intervention that is most needed to cop up with the effects of climate variability and change in each agro-ecology. Climate risk exposure levels can be reduced through timely provision of climate specific information and early warning systems aimed at enhancing preparedness of farm households to extreme events. It is also crucial to expand availability of infrastructural facilities such as market, health services, and veterinary services so as to enhance adaptive capacity. Supporting alternative livelihood options and enhancing water harvesting practices for supplementary irrigation also call policy attention.
Highlights
Based on the predication made by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the expected increase in global temperature in the two decades is between 0.3 ̊C and 0.7 ̊C [1]
Higher exposure relative to adaptive capacity resulted in a positive Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI)-IPCC score in the dry lowland agro-ecology and positioned it in more vulnerable level than the wet lowland
The vulnerability index is derived for the two agro-ecologies of the study area based on the IPCC definition of vulnerability to climatic impacts making use of 12 major components aligned to the three vulnerability contributing factors
Summary
Based on the predication made by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the expected increase in global temperature in the two decades is between 0.3 ̊C and 0.7 ̊C [1]. Based on this prediction, [2] [3] revealed an increase of temperature between 0.3 ̊C - 4.8 ̊C by the end of the 21st century depending on emission scenarios. The changes have been manifested through increase in duration of hot days hot nights, and heat waves These variability and change in climate have already made Africa most vulnerable owing to its high reliance on climate sensitive sector and low adaptive capacity [4] putting about 600 million Africans at risk of water stress, extensive floods, drought, and famine. Sub-Saharan Africa will be the most vulnerable part as these risks will cause a reported decline of 10 - 20 percent in crop yields by 2050, which will lead to a significant decline in crop revenue [1] [2] [3] [4] [5]
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