Chapter one - The importance of innovation and new findings in domino effects research

Abstract

Cascading events in which an escalation triggered by a domino effect takes place are high-impact low-probability accidents that require specific prevention and mitigation in design and operation of industrial facilities and industrial parks. A domino effect phenomenon was responsible of several catastrophic accidents that affected the chemical and process industry, as well as critical infrastructures for energy and other industrial sectors where relevant quantities of hazardous substances are stored or processed. Although to date most of these events were caused by unintentional domino effects, related to process safety accidents, intentional, security-related, domino effects may cause similar scenarios. Significant regulatory requirements and technical standards address the prevention and mitigation of domino effects in the design and operation of industrial sites. However, the complexity of the topic and the limited data available result in a poor agreement on assessment procedures to address escalation hazards possibly resulting in domino scenarios. Even if methods, models, and tools developed now facilitate the quantitative assessment of domino scenarios in risk analysis and in the safety management of industrial sites, a number of open points still remain. In recent years, a constant progress was made in improving the quantitative methods for understanding and assessing domino effects, and in addressing and reducing the uncertainty. Recent research efforts dedicated to the exploration of domino effects allowed the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment. These may now be complemented by specific methods addressing the quantitative performance of safety barriers to prevent the escalation. In parallel, a relevant effort was dedicate to methods addressing the control and prevention of intentional domino effects. In the present chapter, an overview of the more active research areas in domino effects is provided, and the importance of innovation and new findings for the assessment and the management of the risk caused by cascading events triggered by domino effects is provided.