A thorough classification and discussion of approaches for modeling and managing domino effects in the process industries

Abstract

Recent catastrophic accidents in China and the USA urge and justify a thorough study on current & future research trends in the development of modeling methods and protection strategies for prevention and mitigation of large-scale escalating events or so-called domino effects in the process and chemical industries. This paper firstly provides an overview of what constitutes domino effects based on the definition and features, characterizing domino effect studies according to different research issues and approaches. The modeling approaches are grouped into three types while the protection strategies are divided into five categories, followed by detailed descriptions of representative modeling approaches and management strategies in chemical plants and clusters. The current research trends in this field are obtained based on the analysis of research work on domino effects caused by accidental events, natural events, and intentional attacks over a period of the past 30 years. A comparison analysis is conducted for the current modeling approaches and management strategies to pose their applications. Finally, this paper offers future research directions and identifies critical challenges in the field, aiming at improving the safety and security of chemical industrial areas so as to prevent and mitigate domino effects.