Chapter 68 An Assessment of the Impact of Agricultural Research in South Asia Since the Green Revolution

Food grains occupy a dominant place in Indian agriculture. The demand for food grains is continuously increasing due to steady increase in the population. Food grains are an important source of energy and protein to majority of the Indians, who are vegetarians. Apart from this, the Government of India enacted the National Food Security Act (NFSA) which came into force with effect from July 5, 2013. This further put pressure on the demand for food grains in the country. Realizing the importance of food grains, the Government of India initiated various measures to boost the production and productivity of food grains since independence. As a result of this, the production of food grains has increased since 1950s, but still there is a gap between demand for and supply of food grains in the country which needs to be addressed urgently. In view of this, the projections for the area, production, and productivity of food grains for 5 years starting from 2016-17 onwards, based on the univariate time series analysis known as ARIMA analysis, was conducted in this paper. ARIMA (2,1,2), ARIMA (4,1,0), and ARIMA (3,1,3) models were fitted to the data on area, production, and productivity of food grains, respectively and these models were found to be adequate. The forecast values indicated that production and productivity will increase during the forecast period but that of area exhibited near stagnancy, calling for timely measures to enhance the supply of food grains to meet the increasing demand in the years to come.

Food Security Under The Era Of Climate Change Threat

The Presented study is an attempt to examine the trend and instability in area, production and productivity of food grain crops in Haryana and India during period 1966-67 to 2012-13 and five sub periods i.e. P-I (1966-67 to 1975-76), P-II (1976-77 to 1985-86), P-III (1986-87 to 1995-96), P-IV (1996-97 to 2005-06) and P-V (2006-07 to 2012-13). The study is based on secondary data. The study reveals positive trends in area, production and yield of food grains for both Haryana and India. Production in Haryana and India increased mainly due to increase in yield. Similar results have been obtained on triennium bases. In Haryana, area, production and yield have shown positive growth rates in all the periods and the overall period except for area in Period-III, IV and V. In the case of India positive growth rates has obtained for production and yield of food grains while area has shown negative trend in Periods III, IV, V and entire period under study. The coefficient of variation (C.V.) in respect of the three components i.e. area, production and productivity of total food grains found to be higher in Haryana as compared to India in all the periods and the overall period except for yield in period-III, yield and production in period-IV and yield in Period-V. Similar results have been obtained for the instability indices.

The state of Odisha having an agrarian based economy depends largely on agriculture for the livelihood of its population. Food grains are important commodity of crop groups that provide high quality carbohydrates, protein and vitamins. A study on the compound growth rate of area, yield and production of food grains for kharif season in the districts of Odisha and the state as a whole has been attempted in the present study which would be helpful in visualizing the progress of the state with respect to food grain cultivation and proper framing of agricultural policies of the state. The study is based secondary data for the period of 1993-94 to 2017-18 to estimate the compound growth rate and Cuddy-Della Instability Index of area, yield and production of kharif food grains for the districts and the state as a whole. The districts are ranked on the basis of compound growth rate and Cuddy-Della Instability Index in decreasing order and increasing order of their magnitudes respectively. The rank correlation between Compound Growth Rate and Cuddy-Della Instability Index of area, yield and production of food grains during kharif seasons are studied. It is found that despite negative growth rate in area, the positive compound growth rate of yield leads to positive compound growth rate in production of kharif food grains of Odisha. Also it is found that despite stability of area, the instability of yield leads to instability in production of kharif food grains in the state of Odisha.

This paper has explored the growth and instability in production and productivity of food grains during the different phases of liberalization (1981–2010) in the context of the zone of Jangalmahal in West Bengal. We have compared the growth and instability in production and productivity of the food grains of the districts of Jangalmahal with that of Burdwan district in West Bengal. Analyzing the kinked exponential growth model for food grains production and its area productivity for the districts of Jangalmahal we have found that in most of the cases growth of food grains production and its productivity has declined during the WTO regime. The issue of instability has also been examined for food grains production and productivity. This paper has discussed the causes and consequences of the slow performances of the districts of Jangalmahal in food grains production and productivity.

The present study attempts to analyze the trends in the area, production and productivity of major food grain crops in the state of Nagaland for a period of ten years i.e., from 2011-12 to 2020-21. Statistical tools such as average, percentage and line charts have been used to study. To measure the variability in the area, production and productivity of major food grains, Coefficient of variation (CV) has been computed. Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), has also been used to estimate the growth in the area, production and productivity of food grains in the state. The finding shows that the production and productivity of food grains have experienced an upward trend, registering a percentage increase of 24.50 percent and 13.26 percent, respectively. Cultivation of food grains occupies more than 75 percent of the total cropped area throughout the period. Under food grain area, cultivation of cereal occupied more than 66 percent of the total cropped area. Rice being the stable crop of the people occupied more than 47 percent of the total cropped area. The percentage area of jhum paddy and maize to total cropped area witnessed a decreasing trend during the period. The share of agriculture and allied sector in Gross State Value Added (GSVA) has also been decreasing during the period.

Background: Having a population growing at an annual average rate of 1.2 per cent and more than half of its total size depend on primary sector for their livelihood, agricultural sector occupy significant role in the economy of India. The extent of area, production and productivity of food grains and their instability therefore attracts special attention. The present study thus analyses the performance of agricultural sector in India in terms of trend in growth and instability of area, production and productivity of food grain during the three decades of liberalisation. The specific objectives are (i) to examine the growth rate and instability in area, production and yield of food grains in India and (ii) to explain the decomposing changes in the variability of food grains production in India. Methods: In this field-laboratory investigation during 1990-91 to 2018-19, official secondary data has been utilized. Statistical tools like Least Square Growth Rate, Coefficient of Variation of area, production, and yield etc. have been applied for analysis. Result: The study highlighted that area under food grain cultivation remained almost stagnant. However, the overall food grain production registered growth rate of 2 per cent while the production instability was 15.88 per cent. The trend lines fitted to the production of foodgrains shows positive growth rate. The co-efficient of determination (R2) shows 87 percent for production and 92 percent for productivity which determines scope for further production for India. But in area it shows just 3.9 per cent. The result of the study shows that the production of food grains has increased with due instability during given the time period. It also calls for adopting alternate production technologies which will further improve the productivity of food grains to meet increasing demand from the growing population.

The Green Revolution, implemented with introduction of new production technologies to sustain food production in India. However, the benefits of this revolution became insipid within a few decades due to the overexploitation of land by chemicals and variations in climate. On the other hand, the new economic policy open the Indian internal economy to the global economy, resulting in the conversion of agricultural land into non-agricultural land, thereby reducing food grain production and promoting the growth of commercial crops for export. Consequently, the per capita availability of food grains declined continuously, impacting human capital through reduced nutrition intake. India is home to at least 15 percent of the world's malnourished population, and according to FAO estimates, over 190 million people go hungry every day in the country. Therefore, ensuring the sustainability of food grain production is a challenging task. Sustainability refers to meeting our own needs without compromising the needs of future generations. This present paper aims to analyze the reasons for the unsustainability of food grain production in Karnataka state. Variations in climatic and socio-economic conditions are major causes of unsustainable agriculture and food grain production. Using secondary data from various government reports, as well as simple statistical and GIS tools, this paper has identified several findings and suggestions on productive capacity of the soil, conserving soil health, cultivation costs, water conservation methods, food distribution system etc. Additionally, this paper suggests that government policies should focus on the primary sector, particularly on research and innovative ideas Keywords: Agriculture, Food Grains Production, Sustainability

Agricultural sector plays the pivotal role in the overall development of Telangana economy. Nearly 62 percent of Telangana’s population lives in rural areas and 55 percent of the workforce actually engaged in agricultural activities. Agricultural sector is a major source of livelihood for a large majority of the State population. In this study, an attempt has been made to know the performance of agriculture sector in Telangana state by knowing the growth trends and instability in area, production and yield of foodgrain crops in the state for the period 1955-56 to 2015-16. It has been observed that the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of foodgrains production, area and yield showed a decreasing trend. The production of total foodgrains has the negative growth rate of -0.94 percent during the overall study period. The overall average production of total foodgrains is 41.92 lakh tonnes and area under total food crops is registered 34.77 lakh hectares. However, in the case of instability, Standard Deviation (absolute change) for overall period in the production of foodgrain is registered 20.74 lakh tonnes which are about 49.30 percent (Coefficient of Variation). Likewise, the total absolute change (Standard Deviation) in the area under cultivation of food grain crops is only 5.39 lakh hectares which is about 15.49 percent (Coefficient of Variation) during the study period in addition to this instability in food grains yield is showing an increasing trend over the period. Instability in production and yield is increased more and more after the introduction of economic reforms in the state compared to the adoption of new technology (green revolution) in agricultural sector.

Globalization is, directly and indirectly, contributing to its effect in all sectors of an economy. The agricultural sector is not exempted from the effect of change due to globalization as a component of the primary sector and a prime sector for human survival needs. The status of self-sufficient in the production of food grain will lead a nation to make a walk of pride among the other member globally. India is an agro-economy. In other words, agriculture is the backbone of the Indian economy. So the production of food grain and its cultivation and yield should be normally high to meet out the demand of a growing population. Also, with the implementation of a policy of globalization, there might be some change in cultivation, production, and yield of food grains in India. In this paper, an attempt was made to examine/ identify the change in area under cultivation, yield, and production by using the secondary sources of data from 1970 to 2017. The selected breakeven point of time was 1991-1992. The annual growth rate pictured the change in a particular point of time; the linear and quadratic model gave the growth over the period selected for the study, and dummy used regression model presented the difference in structural change. AGR results dominated by the negative growth rate; the linear growth model for production depicts that 3.6 percentage of tons of production will be move when a year moves upward. The area under cultivation is deteriorating in AGR, and other models used gave a weakness in explanatory level concerning time for the area under cultivation of food grain. Regarding the obtained results for yield reflect that a positive change exists after globalization, even though a reduction in area under cultivation.

In the present study, an attempt has been made to know the performance of agriculture sector in India by knowing the trends in area, production and productivity of food grain crops in India for the period 1980-81 to 2012-13. It has been observed that the compound growth rate in the area under total food grain revealed a declining trend. The production of total food grain crops grow at the rate of 1.94 per cent per annum during the study period. The productivity of total food grains grow at a rate of 2.08 per cent per annum. The overall average production of total food grains is 188.37 million tonnes out of which Rice has maximum average production i.e. 78.68 million tonnes during the study period. The overall average productivity of total food grain is 1522.06 kg/hectare out of wheat has maximum average productivity i.e. 2440.70 kg/hectare. The overall average area under total food grains is registered 125.93 million hectare out of which Rice has occupied maximum average area i.e. 42.48 million hectare. But, the overall absolute variability (Standard Deviation) in the production of total food grain is registered 35.39 million tonnes which is about 18.79 per cent (Coefficient of Variation). Similarly, the overall absolute change (Standard Deviation) in the productivity of total food grain is 279.29 kg/hectare which is 19.53 per cent (Coefficient of Variation) and the overall change in the area under cultivation of food grain crops is only 3.28 million hectares which is about 2.65 per cent during the study period.

Although South Asian countries made impressive progress in food production during 1960s, 1970s and 1980s, the dynamism in the agricultural sector has, however, lost recently. Productivity of major food grains has slowed down and even declined, for some crops and food production is failing to keep pace with population growth. Therefore, food security has remained a major concern in South Asian countries. The linkage between food production and the Himalayan mountains is poorly understood though the Himalayan mountains are the major source of dry season water in Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Bhutan for irrigated rice and wheat, which are the staple food in South Asia. In view of that this article briefly examines the role of the Himalayan mountain systems in food production and agricultural sustainability in South Asian countries looking at the emerging challenges posed by the increasing water stress and climate change. The analysis suggests that a common challenge is being faced by all South Asian countries—for increased food production to meet the demand of burgeoning population, the growing stress of water as rice and wheat , the staple food in South Asia, require huge amounts of water. Moreover, the increased food production in South Asia has to come from the same amount of land, by increasing productivity through bringing additional land under irrigation, as the frontier for expansion of agricultural land has almost been exhausted. The availability of irrigation water is, therefore, critical for increased food production and agricultural sustainability in entire South Asia. Climate change introduces a new challenge to agriculture and food security in South Asia. Recent studies suggest that the impact of climate change on cereal production in South Asia could be negative and that may be as high as 18.2–22.1 per cent. Our analysis reveals that the Hindu Kush-Himalayan mountain systems play a significant role in agriculture and food security in South Asia through water supply, climate and wind regulation, groundwater recharge and in sustaining wetland ecosystems. It is the major source of dry season water for several large river systems, such as the Indus, the Ganges and the Brahmaputra from the snow and glacier melt of the Himalayas, which provide the main basis for surface and groundwater irrigation. These three rivers form the largest river basins (Indo–Ganga–Brahmaputra) which are the major source of rice and wheat in South Asia. Besides surface water, the contribution of mountain discharge to groundwater is also significant, which makes it an important resource for agriculture and food security in South Asia. In addition to providing surface and groundwater, the Himalayan mountain system provides huge inputs to agriculture through regulating micro-climates as well as wind and monsoon circulation, and by supporting river and wetland ecosystems in South Asia. It is estimated that the Ganges river ecosystem alone supports 25,000 or more species, ranging from micro-organisms to mammals, which support agricultural sustainability and provide livelihoods for millions of people. This article concludes that the long-term agricultural sustainability and food security of South Asia is heavily dependent on the water and other ecosystem services it receives from the Himalayan ecosystems. Attention therefore must be paid to conserve the Himalayan ecosystems in order to ensure sustained flow of ecosystem services required for agriculture, food production and overall well-being of Himalayan and downstream population. Options and opportunities for enhancing the agricultural sustainability and food security by sustainable utilization of Himalayan resources and ecosystem services are briefly analyzed and suggestions have been made.

The trend in the area under cultivation, agricultural production of food grains, and yield per hectare are all measures of its economic impact. This study's goal is to examine the acreage, productivity, and yield of food grain farming in India from 1991–1992 through 2020–2021 after liberalization. To accomplish the goals, secondary data was acquired from the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, the Reserve Bank of India, the Indian government, the Indian Coffee Board, and the Indian Tea Board.The average annual growth rate (AAGR), compound annual growth rate (CAGR), and linear trend line were used to evaluate the growth rate of the area, production, and yield of food grains. The study found that food grain production in lakh tonnes was 1906.81, 2152.91, and 2736.58; food grain yield in kilogrammes per hectare was 1550, 1761.6, and 2181.3; and the average decade rates of area under cultivation of food grains were correspondingly 1229.5, 1220.5, and 1254.5. The area expansion and yield were the primary factors that increased food grain output. Because of this, the emphasis should be on enlarging the area by using enough land and promoting technical advancement and research in India's agricultural sector.

Agriculture is the backbone of the economy of Odisha. Food grain production in the state is mainly confined in the coastal areas which include Puri, Khordha, Ganjam, Kendrapada, Jagatsinghpur, Cuttack, Bhadrak and Balasore districts. Climatic and soil conditions of these areas are very much suitable for cultivation of different kharif food grain crops. Food grains include both cereals and pulses. Major cereals grown in these areas are rice, ragi, maize, wheat and bajra and major pulses grown in these areas are green gram, black gram, kulthi and arhar. To study the variation in yield of major kharif food grains, a study is made about the area and production of kharif food grains in these coastal districts from the year 1993-94 to 2014-15. This study includes test of significance of change in mean and variance of area, yield and production of kharif food grains from Period-I (1993-94 to 2002-03) to Period-II (2003-04 to 2014-15). To test the significance of change in mean and variance of area, yield and production of kharif food grains, we have to calculate the mean and variance of area, yield and production of kharif food grains from Period-I to Period-II by using Fisher′s t-test and Snedecor’s F-test respectively. Increase in the production of kharif food grains of Odisha after the year 2003-04 is due to adoption of new and improved technologies. High variation in mean yield and mean production of kharif food grains is marked which may be due to uneven spread of technologies. In Balasore, Bhadrak, Ganjam and Kendrapada districts change in yield variance contributes more towards change in variance of production. More variation in yield in the above districts is due to scattered land holdings by farmers.

The Northeast India comprises of eight Indian states viz., Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim and Tripura. The agricultural sector plays a dominant role in the economy of Northeast India, contributing significantly to food security and rural livelihoods. The objective of the present study is to provide an overview of the trends in area, production, and yield of food grains in Northeast India over a specified period. This study is both descriptive and empirical in nature and primarily based on secondary data. Among the states of the Northeast, Assam is the highest in production and area under food grain crops and Mizoram is the lowest in the same. The estimates of yield have been recorded that in Manipur, the yield is the highest almost every year in this period. The study observed significant fluctuations in the overall production of food grains across the region. KEYWORDS: Northeast, Agriculture, Area, Production, Yield, Food grain-