Abstract
This chapter describes a methodology for forecasting regional immigration flows as part of a full regional general equilibrium system of economic, demographic, and environmental interrelationships. Migration flows emerge from a full set of interactive relationships for any region. One needs to consider the general equilibrium nature of the region in forecasting future migration patterns. Given the availability of regional data, it is possible to link economic, environmental, and demographic models into a simultaneous system of statistical and nonstatistical relations, of which one linkage is the migration equation itself. The demonstration for the Los Angeles region shows a considerable variation between interactive model forecasts and those from decoupled procedures. Nonetheless, for regions undergoing major changes in the economic, demographic, or environmental areas, or where migration is the primary source of regional population growth, forecasts ignoring feedbacks accounted for in a general equilibrium model are likely to be in considerable error.
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