Abstract
This chapter applies the global forest products model (GFPM) to a base scenario that is meant to predict the most likely changes in the world forest sector and to serve as a base for comparison with other scenarios. The base scenario presented in the chapter gives detailed projections for all products from 1997 to 2010, with the assumptions listed. GFPM compares results from different scenarios to assess the likely magnitude of changes in forest sector variables resulting from policy, macroeconomic shocks, or management decisions. The chapter concludes that the global forest sector has expanded greatly during the last three decades, and trends show rising production, domestic consumption, and trade. The base scenario projections based on the assumed gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates, round wood supply shift rates, and other model parameters show that the consumption, production, and trade of forest products would continue increasing over the next decade. Price projections suggest that the real price of industrial round wood would increase slowly over the next decade. The projected consumption, production, trade, and prices depend on GFPM parameters and assumptions, such as demand elasticities, input–output coefficients, GDP growth rates, and the round wood supply shift rates.
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