Co-integration analysis between GDP and meteorological catastrophic factors of Nanjing city based on the buffer operator

Abstract

This paper analyzes the relationship between meteorological catastrophic factors and gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of Nanjing city (China). The sample spans the period 1980–2010, including GDP growth rate and meteorological catastrophic factors (extreme precipitation, extreme temperature and extreme wind speed). We utilize econometric methods to take co-integration analysis and Granger causality test among GDP growth rate and the time series of meteorological catastrophic factors of Nanjing city processed by buffer operators. Finally, the paper shows the short-term changes in minimum atmospheric pressure, extreme high temperature, and minimum relative humidity, which has a positive impact on GDP; the cumulative effect of extreme precipitation and GDP affects each other to some extent, they are mutually Granger causes. Moreover, at the 95 % confidence level, we believe that maximum wind speed is the Granger causation of GDP growth rate.