Chapter 5 - Is there observational precipitation evidence that climate change is responsible for the recurring drought disaster in Ethiopia?

Abstract

This chapter examines if index-based historical drought analysis provides sufficient evidence as to whether the increase in drought disasters in Ethiopia is associated with climate change or not. Regardless of the seasonal and agroecological differences, there is no statistically significant declining trend or variability of seasonal and annual standardized precipitation index (SPI) over the last four decades. In addition, there is no change in the areal coverage of the drought during the same period. However, analysis of the occurrence of consecutive two-season droughts of belg season (short rain) followed by kiremt season (wet) showed a general tendency to increase after each major drought episodes. This phenomenon needs additional investigation using more stations and long-term data. Overall, in spite of the increasing tendency of drought disasters, precipitation-based investigation alone does not provide adequate evidence as to whether the recurring drought disasters in Ethiopia are related to climate change or not.