Drought characterization for the state of Rio de Janeiro based on the annual SPI index: trends, statistical tests and its relation with ENSO

Abstract

Drought indices allow for the characterization of drought events, being the most widely used the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which is recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as the standard drought index. The objectives of this study are: i) to characterize the variation of annual SPI index in the state of Rio de Janeiro from 1979 to 2009; ii) to relate ENSO events with the variation of the annual SPI; iii) to identify possible significant trends of rainfall increase and reduction based on the annual SPI; and iv) characterize drought evolution in the SRJ in the 1979–2009 period (Appendix A). For the SPI calculation, a monthly time series with 31 consecutive years was used, based on rainfall data from 99 rainfall stations distributed in eight government regions. Annual SPI data was presented using maps created with ArcGIS software version 10.2.2 and all statistical procedures were calculated in the R environment software. The Shapiro-Wilk (SW) and Bartlett (B) tests characterized rainfall data as being mostly normal and non-homogeneous. The annual SPI showed that the Center South region experienced the highest continuous dry period between 1999 and 2000 and 2002–2003. The annual SPI was assessed with the Mann-Kendall (MK), Curvature Sen (magnitude) and Pettitt (abrupt inflection) tests. The MK test indicated significant trends of annual rainfall increase in the North and Mountainous regions, and significant reduction trends in the Mountainous and Center South regions. Pettitt's test indicated significant abrupt changes in the North, Center South and Mountainous regions. The Curvature Sen test revealed that stations Dois Rios (North) and Cordeiro (Mountainous) registered a greater magnitude in the increase and reduction of the annual SPI, respectively.