Chapter 5 - Human hypercomplexity. Error and unpredictability in complex multichaotic social systems

Abstract

In the past, many scientists were convinced that, in the not-so-distant future, it would be possible to obtain a thorough understanding of virtually all phenomena, controlling and managing their complexity. However, it was slowly becoming evident that traditional linear models and reductionist/deterministic approaches were no longer capable of analyzing the unstable dynamics of reality. And yet, a limited vision of reality persists even today, despite (or perhaps due to) the ongoing anthropological transformation and the enormous advances made in digital technology. Experts in information technology and artificial intelligence, scientists, sociologists, educators, and political decision-makers alike are convinced that it will soon be possible to eliminate error, doubt, and unpredictability from our society and from our lives. This is one of the grand illusions of the hypertechnological civilization, leading to what I have in the past defined “the great mistake”: the belief that all problems can be solved by delegating solutions solely to technology, and that complexity in social systems can be measured, managed, and predicted through data, algorithms, formulas, and statistics. Furthermore, the accelerations of technology, the increase in variables and parameters, and the enhanced strategic role of communication have hurled us into hypercomplexity, which we need to learn how to inhabit. This learning process can only unroll through a systemic approach in which the epistemology of error plays a key role.