Chapter 2 - Wrongful Conviction Rates

Abstract

Once the reality of wrongful convictions has been confirmed anecdotally, the question of frequency arises. Researchers and other CJ professionals want to know how often miscarriages occur, and whether there are consistent correlates that can lend themselves to prediction and possibly prevention. At the outset, it must be acknowledged that despite the efforts of some very well-intentioned social scientists, good numbers are hard to find. The rate of wrongful conviction, if not entirely unexplored in a given jurisdiction, is essentially unknowable. The reason is that guilt is often a legal “truth” established by the opinion of a judge or jury. It is not a scientific fact. What stands for fact and evidence in a courtroom is often insufficient as confirmation anywhere else—to say nothing of those who are “qualified” by the courts to give evidence. To explore this and related issues, this chapter reviews the conclusions of early miscarriage research, the conclusions of contemporary research, and the systemic realities that help contextualize those results.