Chapter 2 - Climate Scenarios in Relation to Agricultural Patterns of Major Crops in Southern Africa

Abstract

Rainfed agricultural production dominates across all the 15 countries found in the Southern African Development Community. Under rainfed systems yield variation is directly related to the seasonal rainfall distribution and the total annual receipts. Extreme temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns that have been recorded in the last three decades threaten both food and income security of smallholder farmers. Rainfall and temperature projections show that by 2050, the arid regions in southern Africa will expand as humid and subhumid zones shift toward the equator. Major crops and livestock production systems will shift in response to climate change. To avoid high yield penalty, smart technologies are required to increase agricultural productivity in lowly performing areas (in relatively drier regions) and maintain it in high potential areas. Local climate models need to be improved for projection, which smallholder farmers can use to adequately plan for climate eventualities and reduce risk.