Terrorism, Insurgency, and Regional Stability: The Case of Mozambique

Abstract

Since the end of the Cold War in the late 1980s, the southern Africa region has been characterised by the near absence of terrorism. In central, eastern, northern, and western Africa, internal armed conflicts have emerged at one point or another in the postcolonial period, while southern Africa is the only region that has been, until recently, free of serious internal conflicts characterised by the use of conventional weapons. However, the recent emergence of terrorism in Mozambique poses a threat to the stability of not only that country but the entire region. The military intervention of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and Rwanda presents an opportunity for Mozambique and the SADC to thwart the increasingly violent terrorist attacks in Mozambique. This article explores the organised terrorist attacks that have emerged since 2017 in the Mozambican province of Cabo Delgado, the implications for the stability of southern Africa, and the posture of the SADC and states in the region regarding the security situation. A qualitative approach is adopted to ensure a comprehensive interpretation of the data. Both primary and secondary data sources were used, the former being mainly official SADC communiques on the situation, and the latter peer-reviewed articles and books and news articles and reports by humanitarian organisations on the situation. A conceptual distinction is made between the concepts of “insurgency” and “terrorism”, and this distinction is subsequently used to analyse the nature and scope of the instability in Mozambique and, fundamentally, whether the crisis constitutes an insurgency or terrorism.