Abstract
This chapter provides a rapid screening tool for assessment of Sustainable Flood Retention Basins (SFRB) to predict corresponding dam failure risks. Flood storage was assessed for 110 SFRB and the corresponding Dam Failure Risk was evaluated for all dams across the Greater Manchester study area. The results show that Dam Failure Risk can be estimated by using the variables Dam Height, Dam Length, Maximum Flood Water Volume, Flood Water Surface Area, Mean Annual Rainfall, Altitude, Catchment Size, Urban Catchment Proportion, Forest Catchment Proportion, and Managed Maximum Flood Water Volume. A cross-validation R2 value of 0.70 for an artificial neural network model signifies that the tool is likely to predict variables well for new data. Spatial distribution maps show that dam failure risks of SFRB located near cities are higher than those situated in rural locations. This tool could be used as an early warning system in times of heavy rainfall.
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