Abstract
World air transportation demand is projected to grow at a rate of around 5% per year over the next several decades. Although a number of opportunities exist to reduce the energy intensity of the aircraft fleet, they are not sufficient to stabilize or even reduce CO2 emissions. Alternative fuels offer an additional degree of freedom for cutting CO2 emissions. Among those, synthetic fuels from comparatively abundant cellulosic biomass show the greatest mitigation promise. However, the potentially long times required for scaling up production processes, the high capital necessary for the production process itself, and variable oil prices require coordinated, predictable, and long-term government policies to ensure investor confidence.
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