Changing Water Cycle under a Warming Climate: Tendencies in the Carpathian Basin

Abstract

In this mini-review, we present evidence from the vast literature that one essential part of the coupled atmosphere–ocean system that makes life on Earth possible, the water cycle, is exhibiting changes along with many attributes of the global climate. Our starting point is the 6th Assessment Report of the IPCC, which appeared in 2021, where the almost monograph-size Chapter 8, with over 1800 references, is devoted entirely to the water cycle. In addition to listing the main observations on the Earth globally, we focus on Europe, particularly on the Carpathian (Pannonian) Basin. We collect plausible explanations of the possible causes behind an observably accelerating and intensifying water cycle. Some authors still suggest that changes in the natural boundary conditions, such as solar irradiance or Earth’s orbital parameters, explain the observations. In contrast, most authors attribute such changes to the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations since the industrial revolution. The hypothesis being tested, and which has already yielded convincing affirmative answers, is that the hydrological cycle intensifies due to anthropogenic impacts. The Carpathian Basin, a part of the Danube watershed, including the sub-basin of the Tisza River, is no exception to these changes. The region is experiencing multiple drivers contributing to alterations in the water cycle, including increasing temperatures, shifting precipitation regimes, and various human impacts.