Adaptive Capacity to Changes in the Water Cycle: A Case Study of Northern China

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Water scarcity and its impacts on agricultural production and food security are growing concerns worldwide. As the most populous country with a rapidly expanding demand for water and food, China‘s situation in many aspects exemplifies the global picture. Northern China has long been a populous area and an industrial and agricultural base in the country. It is the most serious area of water shortage in China. The total amount of water use increased from 243.7 billion m3 in 1994 to 254.2 billion m3 in 2002. Lack of water has become a big constraint to the development of agricultural production and social economy. Many areas in Northern China have average water resources below 500 m3 per person. With the growing demand for water from agriculture, as well as industries and municipalities, water resources have been exploited excessively. Pollution and environmental degradation, in particular soil and water erosion, have compounded the situation by reducing the availability of usable fresh water.With more frequent droughts enhanced by the changing climate, the potential for additional water supply would decrease. This study intends to reveal the water shortage issues, changes in water cycle and impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle in Northern China. Firstly, the natural and socio-economic conditions related to the changes in the water cycle as background in Northern China are briefly introduced. The Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC-3L) is applied to project the possible changes in water resources, including water supply and demand for the different areas in Northern China under the projected climate change scenarios by Hadley Center‘s regional climate model system-PRECIS. Then, the adaptive capacity to changes in the water cycle is analyzed by assessing the vulnerability of water resources to the climate change under different climatic and socio-economic scenarios. Finally, it is discussed the possible adaptive options related to the sustainable development and utilization of water resources in Northern China, such as optimizing the distribution of water resources, improving the efficiency of water use, enhancing the saving of water use as well as protection and rehabilitation of ecosystems.Key wordsAdaptive capacityclimate changeNorthern Chinavulnerabilitywater cyclewater resources