Changing distribution of migrant population and its influencing factors in urban China: Economic transition, public policy, and amenities

Abstract

Rural-urban and interregional migration has greased the wheels of China's labor market and fueled rapid urbanization. The spatial distribution of migrants has changed significantly in recent years. We create a panel of Chinese cities using decennial census and annual yearbook data, studying the distribution of migrants from 2010 to 2016, comparing with prior years, and examining factors behind the changing spatial distribution. Results show that China's maturing economy, coupled with shifting migration policy and migrants' preferences, has affected the redistribution of migrants. The spatial agglomeration of migrants peaked in the early 2010s, so did the growth of migrants—signaling a major turning point of China's urbanization. The slowdown is most evident in coastal mega-regions, while several interior provincial capitals and coastal lower-tier cities have emerged as new migration destinations. Industrial upgrading and restrictive migration rules have pushed migrants away, while strong economies and more public services have attracted migrants. However, air pollution and higher housing cost have not deterred migrants. Our findings highlight that, while institutional factors and state interventions have greatly affected migration—except in the largest cities—their effects are diminishing in urban China. As the growth of productivity and population continues to slow, lower-tier cities can recruit migrants as part of their development plans.