Abstract
BackgroundMultiple survey reports suggest that alcohol use has increased in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, less is known about how per capita alcohol sales, which predict population-level alcohol use, have changed and whether changes in alcohol sales differ from changes in sales of other products due to pandemic factors.MethodsWe obtained monthly retail sales data by industry from Statistics Canada, for the six largest provinces in Canada (containing 93% of the national population), between January 2010 and November 2020, representing time before and 9 months after the start of the pandemic in Canada. We used an interrupted time series analysis to estimate pandemic impacts on the dollar value of monthly per capita (per individuals 15+ years) alcohol, essential and non-essential retail sales. We adjusted our analyses for pre-pandemic sales trends, inflation, seasonality and changing population demographics over time.ResultsDuring the first 9 months of the pandemic, the values of per capita alcohol, essential and non-essential sales were, respectively, 13.2% higher, 3.6% higher and 13.1% lower than the average values during the same period in the prior 3 years. Interrupted time series models showed significant level change for the value of monthly per capita alcohol sales (+$4.86, 95% CIs: 2.88, 6.83), essential sales (−$59.80, 95% CIs: − 78.47, − 41.03) and non-essential sales (−$308.70, 95% CIs: − $326.60, − 290.79) during the pandemic. Alcohol sales were consistently elevated during the pandemic, and the pre- and post-pandemic slopes were comparable. In contrast, essential and non-essential retail sales declined in the early months of the pandemic before returning to regular spending levels.ConclusionDuring the first 9 months of the pandemic, per capita alcohol sales were moderately elevated in Canada. In contrast, non-essential sales were lower than prior years, driven by large decreases during the initial months of the pandemic. These findings suggest that the pandemic was associated with increased population-level alcohol consumption, which may lead to increased alcohol-related harms. Ongoing research is needed to examine how factors, including pandemic-related stressors and specific alcohol sales-related policies, may have influenced changes in alcohol use and harms.
Highlights
Alcohol is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality both in Canada and internationally [1, 2]
Study design and data sources We used an interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to investigate if the dollar value of per capita alcohol sales in Canada changed during the first 9 months (March – November 2020) of the pandemic relative to prior years
Alcohol sales had a similar seasonal pattern but the per capita value of alcohol sold during the first 9 months of the pandemic (March – November 2020) was 13.2% greater than the average value of alcohol sold during the same time period in in the prior 3 years (March – November, 2017-2019)
Summary
Alcohol is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality both in Canada and internationally [1, 2]. Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, there have been growing concerns about potential increases in alcohol use and consequent negative health impacts [3]. Alcohol’s contribution to multiple chronic diseases may mean that sustained increases in consumption could result in health and social costs well beyond the pandemic [2]. Multiple surveys have found increases in self-reported drinking during the pandemic. Results from two national surveys of Canadians found a 6 and 15% net increase in self-reported alcohol use in April and June 2020, respectively [7, 8]. There is ongoing uncertainty of the degree to which alcohol use has changed in Canada during the pandemic. Multiple survey reports suggest that alcohol use has increased in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic. Less is known about how per capita alcohol sales, which predict population-level alcohol use, have changed and whether changes in alcohol sales differ from changes in sales of other products due to pandemic factors
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