Alcoholic Psychoses in Russia and Belarus: A Comparative Analysis of Trends

Abstract

Background: The alcoholic psychoses incidence rate is a reliable indicator of alcohol-related problems at the population level since there is a strong relationship between alcoholic psychoses incidence rate and alcohol consumption per capita. Aims: To estimate the aggregate level effect of alcohol on the psychoses incidence rate in the former Soviet Republics Russia and Belarus. Method: Trends in alcoholic psychoses incidence rate and alcohol sales per capita from 1970 to 2013 in Russia and Belarus were analyzed employing an ARIMA analysis. Results: Alcohol sales is a statistically significant associated with alcoholic psychoses incidence rate in both countries, implying that a 1-l increase in per capita alcohol sales is associated with an increase in the alcoholic psychoses incidence rate of 18.6% in Russia and of 18.8% in Belarus. Conclusion: This is the first comparative time-series analysis of alcohol sales and alcoholic psychoses incidence rate in Russia and Belarus, which highlighted close temporal association between alcoholic psychoses rate and population drinking in both countries.