Abstract
This paper discusses the recent official U.S. intelligence estimates indicating a slowdown in the growth rates of Soviet defense spending and military procurement since 1976. The Central Intelligence Agency's explanation for the slowdown is examined. Questions are raised about two of the factors, economic constraints and technical difficulties, and the implications of the CIA's explanation for theories about the relationship of the defense sector to the rest of the economy are considered. The author offers as a possible alternative explanation of the slowdown a change in Soviet military investment priorities de-emphasizing strategic offensive weapons. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 114, 124.
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