US Security Assurances and Nuclear Tripolarity

Abstract

The emergence of nuclear tripolarity among the United States, Russia and China presents important challenges for the credibility of US security assurances. The three central challenges are to synchronise assurances to allies across diverse geographic theatres, resolve ambiguities in assurances to nuclear adversaries, and curtail global proliferation stemming from the looming normalisation of nuclear weapons as tools of statecraft. Overall, the United States and its allies need to appreciate the interconnected nature of various types of assurances to anticipate unintended consequences arising from prioritising one type over others.