Case Study of Collaborative Modeling in an Indigenous Community

Abstract

To support Indigenous communities in preparing for uncertainties such as climate change impacts and unexpected threats to health, there are calls by researchers and community members for decision support tools that meaningfully and sensitively bring together Indigenous contextualized factors such as social dynamics, local- and culture-specific knowledge, and data with academic tools and practices including predictive modeling. This project used a community engaged approach to co-create an agent-based model geographically bounded to a reserve community to examine three community-requested simulations. Community members and researchers co-designed, built, and verified the model simulations: a contaminated water delivery truck; a Pow Wow where a waterborne infectious disease spreads; and a flood which restricts typical movement around the reserve for daily tasks and health care. The simulations’ findings, displayed as both conventional and narrative outputs, revealed management areas where community adaptation and mitigation are needed, including enhancing health service provision in times of disease outbreaks or large community events, and creating back-up plans for overcoming flood impacts to ensure services are accessible for vulnerable members of the community. Recommendations for communities, researchers, and modelers are discussed.