Carbon transfer under China's inter-provincial trade: Evaluation and driving factors

Abstract

China's emission reduction task under the carbon peaking and neutrality goals is particularly arduous. Due to the uneven economic development among regions, the extent of carbon transfer and “carbon leakage” varies across China's provinces. Based on China's latest multi-regional input-output tables and the panel STIRPAT model, this study evaluates the carbon footprint and driving factors of carbon transfers. The results show that from 2012 to 2017, despite carbon emissions increased, the carbon intensity of most provinces and cities has been decreasing year by year. There are significant differences in production and consumption sides and their emission structures in different regions, with domestic demand emissions being the major contributor to carbon emissions on both production and consumption sides. Also, “carbon leakage” from abroad to China is decreasing. Furthermore, we have analyzed the various effects of driving factors, and proposed recommendations to motivate carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the following aspects: regional carbon reduction, responsibility for the carbon reduction, carbon reduction in industries, and the role of the carbon trading market.