Production- and consumption-based convergence analyses of global CO2 emissions

Abstract

The convergent trend of CO2 emissions has received wide-spread attention in an attempt to meet the global reduction target, but almost all of the focus has been on the production side. A systematic investigation on the convergence of global CO2 emissions from the production side and the consumption side is of great importance to find the pathways for the worldwide low-carbon development. This study distinguished production- and consumption-based CO2 emissions of 129 economies during the period 1995–2015. Based on traditional sigma (σ), gamma (γ), beta (β), stochastic and club convergence models, we identified convergence progress of CO2 emission on both the production and consumption sides. Taking convergence speed and influential factors into account, we demonstrated different convergence pathways to a reasonable climate strategy. This study obtained four key results. First, in all cases, global per capita CO2 emissions on the production and consumption sides were convergent. Second, the speed of convergence on the production side was higher than on the consumption side. Third, population density, energy intensity, and the share of trade and industrialization had significant effects on the production side, while per capita GDP was more important on the consumption side. Low-carbon development due to medium- and high-technology manufacturing had equal impacts on consumption and production. Forth, different convergence processes among Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), European Union (EU), Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and Rest80 (i.e., the other 80 developing economies) indicate that mitigation policies should differ according to the industrial structure and by economic development. The results of this study will extend our empirical understanding of global CO2 emissions and their policy implications.