Carbon neutral projections of public buildings in China under the shared socioeconomic pathways: A tertiary industry perspective

Abstract

As the energy demand of public building (PB) in China continues to increase, it is meaningful for forecasting the future trend of carbon emissions (CE) of PB. This study analyzes the drivers of CE that affect the operational stage of PB in China by the Generalized Divisia Index Method (GDIM), which considers the effect of the output value and structural transformation of the tertiary industry and makes a scenario prediction of the future carbon-neutral trajectory of CE in PB under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP). The results show that from 2010 to 2020, the added value of the tertiary industry (AVTI) is the strongest positive driver of CE from PB (31.912% of the total contribution), which correspond to a cumulative contribution of 212.3 million tons (MtCO2) in 11 years. Regulating the CE per unit of the AVTI is the key indicator in reducing CE from PB, with a cumulative reduction of 130.1 MtCO2. The results of the five scenarios under the SSP framework differ significantly, with SSP1 peaking first in 2026 at 884.5 MtCO2 (876.2–893.9 MtCO2) and SSP5 peaking latest in 2049 at 1372.3 MtCO2 (1362-1389.7 MtCO2). SSP1 yielded the smallest projection in 2060 with 189.8 MtCO2 (185.4–194.3 MtCO2). The findings could help public buildings to implement carbon reduction and provide more scientific and rational decision support for possible paths to achieve carbon neutrality in China.