Abstract
The development and promotion of fuel cell vehicles is an important way to reduce carbon emissions in transportation. This study predicts the future ownership of fuel cell vehicles in China based on the GRA-BiLSTM combined model, and it is expected that under the low-growth, benchmark, and high-growth scenarios, China's fuel cell vehicle ownership could reach 549,500, 2,351,700, and 8,844,100 vehicles by 2035, respectively. A life cycle assessment of passenger cars and commercial vehicles with different fuel types has shown that the promotion of fuel cell vehicles can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, particularly for commercial vehicles. By 2035, it is expected that China's road transport sector will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 23.83 Mt CO2,eq. The results of the study provide data support and a decision-making basis for relevant Chinese enterprises and governments to adjust the layout and promotion policies of the fuel cell vehicle industry in the future.
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