Policy scenario analysis of achieving the "dual carbon" goal for the road transportation sector in China

Abstract

The goal of "dual carbon" has brought the pressure of reducing carbon emissions to the road transportation sector in China. This study aims to identify and analyze possible policy measures that would help to achieve this goal from the perspective of the whole life cycle. We build a bottom-up computing framework based on the LEAP model. Six policy scenarios are designed to quantitatively assess their effects. The results show that promoting pure electric vehicles (PEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) is appropriate for the passenger vehicles (PV), light-duty trucks (LDT), and mini trucks (MT) sub-sectors, while hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCV) are more suitable for the promotion of the heavy-duty trucks (HDT), heavy-duty buses (HDB), and medium-duty buses (MDB) sub-sectors. Additionally, the recycling of vehicle materials can effectively reduce the carbon emissions during the life cycle of motor vehicles. Furthermore, reducing the carbon emissions from the vehicle cycle of PV and the fuel cycle of HDT should be taken seriously. The main contribution of this study lies in establishing a comprehensive list of vehicle cycle carbon emission factors, covering various sub-sectors of China's road transportation sector. Besides, this study considers China's strategic planning and "dual carbon" goal, and proposes policy recommendations specifically tailored to the practical issues faced by China.