Can a new power system create more employment in China?

Abstract

The transition from the coal-dominated power sector to the renewable energy-dominated new power system will inevitably result in significant social impacts. Taking China as the study case, we employed an integrated methodology combining the energy system optimization model, input‒output and structural path analysis, to explore the employment effects of the new power system, including the energy source, grid, load and storage. The results show that growth in solar power, wind power, energy storage and power transmission and distribution will have positive impacts on employment, while coal power shrinkage will result in negative impacts. Under new power system scenarios, renewable power can create additional 673–730 thousand jobs by 2030 and additional 2,431∼2,706 thousand jobs by 2060 compared with the business-as-usual scenario. However, jobs losses due to coal power shrinkage will reach 665–747 thousand jobs by 2030 and 3,127∼3,398 thousand jobs by 2060 compared with the business-as-usual scenario. In the meantime, power grid and energy storage can create additional 443–604 thousand jobs by 2030 and additional 2,138∼2,764 thousand jobs by 2060. Though the new power system will have positive employment impact in general, social justice should still be considered when there is an employment structure transition alongside the power structure shift.