Abstract
Abstract Tropical cyclogenesis critically depends on the presence of warm water at the sea surface. For the North Atlantic basin as a whole, the tropical storm season starts in May, peaks in September, and then declines, generally following the seasonal warming and cooling of sea surface temperature. In the Caribbean, in contrast, there is a distinct bimodal distribution in the number of tropical storms formed, with peaks in June and October separated by a significant minimum in July. The timing of the observed minimum in tropical cyclogenesis appears to be related to the strengthening of the easterly trade winds over the Caribbean associated with the onset of the so-called veranillo, or midsummer drought (MSD), previously recognized over south-central Mexico, Central America, and parts of the Caribbean. It appears that the observed minimum in cyclogenesis is caused by a combination of environmental factors related to the strengthening of the easterly trade winds across the Caribbean Basin. The strengthen...
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