Bifurcation and chaos analysis of a fractional-order delay financial risk system using dynamic system approach and persistent homology

Abstract

A comprehensive theoretical and numerical analysis of the dynamical features of a fractional-order delay financial risk system(FDRS) is presented in this paper. Applying the linearization method and Laplace transform, the critical value of delay when Hopf bifurcation first appears near the equilibrium is firstly derived in an explicit formula. Comparison simulations clarify the reasonableness of fractional-order derivative and delay in describing the financial risk management processes. Then we employ persistent homology and six topological indicators to reveal the geometric and topological structures of FDRS in delay interval. Persistence barcodes, diagrams, and landscapes are utilized for visualizing the simplicial complex’s information. The approximate values of delay when FDRS undergoes different periodic oscillations and even chaos are determined. The existence of periodic windows within the chaotic interval is correctly decided. The results of this paper contribute to capturing intricate information of underlying financial activities and detecting the critical transition of FDRS, which has promising and reliable implications for a deeper comprehension of complex behaviors in financial markets.