Reliable optimal controls for SEIR models in epidemiology

Abstract

We present and compare two different optimal control approaches applied to SEIR models in epidemiology, which allow us to obtain some policies for controlling the spread of an epidemic. The first approach uses Dynamic Programming to characterise the value function of the problem as the solution of a partial differential equation, the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation, and derive the optimal policy in feedback form. The second is based on Pontryagin’s maximum principle and directly gives open-loop controls, via the solution of an optimality system of ordinary differential equations. This method, however, may not converge to the optimal solution. We propose a combination of the two methods in order to obtain high-quality and reliable solutions. Several simulations are presented and discussed, also checking first and second order necessary optimality conditions for the corresponding numerical solutions.