Australian Fire Danger Rating System: implementing fire behaviour calculations to forecast fire danger in a research prototype†

Abstract

Background The Australian Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS) was implemented operationally throughout Australia in September 2022, providing calculation of fire danger forecasts based on peer-reviewed fire behaviour models. The system is modular and allows for ongoing incorporation of new scientific research and improved datasets. Aims Prior to operational implementation of the AFDRS, a Research Prototype (AFDRSRP), described here, was built to test the input data and systems and evaluate the performance and potential outputs. Methods Fire spread models were selected and aligned with fuel types in a process that captured bioregional variation in fuel characteristics. National spatial datasets were created to identify fuel types and fire history in alignment with existing spatial weather forecast layers. Key results The AFDRSRP demonstrated improvements over the McArthur Forest and Grass Fire Danger systems due to its use of improved fire behaviour models, as well as more accurately reflecting the variation in fuels. Conclusions The system design was robust and allowed for the incorporation of updates to the models and datasets prior to implementation of the AFDRS.