Delivering a New Australian Fire Danger Rating System – Building on decades of research to deliver public safety outcomes

Abstract

The Australian Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS) was launched on 1 September 2022, bringing a generational change to the way that Australia calculates and communicates fire danger. Its focus is improved public safety and reduced impacts of bushfires though: • Improving the science behind fire danger predictions. • Improving the way that fire danger is communicated. • Providing government and industry with better decision-making tools. • Reducing future costs associated with bushfire impacts. The previous fire danger rating system was introduced in the 1960’s by Australia’s first full-time bushfire researcher, Alan McArthur, based on extensive experimental fires. While useful, the system included only two fire behaviour models (dry sclerophyll forest and grassland), was not easily updateable and fires were being experienced that increasingly exceeded its design parameters. In July 2014, Senior Officers and Ministers agreed that the development of a new system was a national priority. The new system was developed by the New South Wales Rural Fire Service in collaboration with the Bureau of Meteorology, all Australian states and territories and the Commonwealth government. Program management and system implementation were coordinated by AFAC (Australia’s National Council for Fire and Emergency Services). The new AFDRS uses contemporary fire behaviour science, makes better use of available data and uses software infrastructure that can be continuously improved. The AFDRS starts with eight fire behaviour models representing a representative range of Australian vegetation types, it captures current fuel information, uses satellite data, integrates weather from the Bureau of Meteorology and calculates fire danger down to a 1.5km by 1.5-kilometer grid. These calculations are linked to tools that assist fire operational decision-making via a Fire Behaviour Index that is calibrated to operational implications for fire management. A separate arm of the project developed a public-facing Fire Danger Rating framework, guided by one of Australia’s largest social research projects. The research found that, while fire danger signage was well recognised, few acted on fire danger ratings to plan their activities. Focus groups and subsequent surveys found that the community preferred a simplified public-facing system where each fire danger rating had a distinct call to action. The implementation of the new system required an enormous effort from all levels of government across all States and Territories as well as the Commonwealth. It required updates to legislation, policy, procedures, web pages and other IT infrastructure, as well as replacement of physical signage. However, as a result, Australia has a significantly new way of calculating and communicating fire danger, that is continuously improvable and which will bring benefits for decades to come.