Assessment of the wind power dynamics in the North Sea under climate change conditions

Abstract

The objective of the present work is to analyse the expected dynamics of the wind power in the North Sea until the end of the twenty-first century. From this perspective, the proposed study is focused on the assessment of the average and extreme conditions, considering two future time windows. These are near future, represented by the 40-year time interval 2021–2060, and distant future, represented by the time interval 2061–2100. The wind data provided by a Regional Climate Model (RCM) is processed and analysed in this work considering the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The first, denoted as the realistic scenario, assumes an increase of the greenhouse gas emissions until 2040 and a stagnation and decline afterwards, while the second, denoted as the pessimistic scenario, assumes that this increase will continue along the entire 21st century and afterword. Furthermore, an analysis of the recent past wind data for the 40-year period 1980–2019 is also carried out. In this way a more comprehensive image of the wind power dynamics for both the near and distant future in the North Sea is provided. The results indicate that enhancements are expected in the North Sea, both in terms of mean wind power density, but also especially as regards the maximum wind speed. Finally, comparisons with the expected dynamics of some other similar marine environments, as the Baltic, Mediterranean and Black seas are also performed.