The expected wind power dynamics in the Mediterranean Sea considering different climate change scenarios

Abstract

An accelerated transition to renewable energy sources is foreseen in the very near future in Europe, including a 25-time enhancement in terms of offshore wind power capacity which is planned until 2050 in relationship with 2021. The potential of the Mediterranean Sea, although not so significant as that of the North or of the Baltic Seas, cannot be neglected and many wind projects will become operational in the next years in this nearshore. In this context, the objective of the present work is to give a perspective of the past and future expected wind power dynamics in the Mediterranean Sea until the end of the twenty-first century. Data from two different Regional Climate Models were processed considering the scenario RCP4.5. An analysis of the historical wind data provided by these two climate wind models for the past 30-year period 1976–2005 is also performed and compared with the ERA5 data. The average and extreme wind power conditions are analysed. Further on, two different future time intervals are considered. These are near future, the 30-year interval 2041–2070, and distant future, the interval 2071–2100. The results indicate that the wind power is expected to remain significant in the Mediterranean Sea.