Assessment of the Water Resources Carrying Capacity in the Great Dunhuang Region

Abstract

Water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) is an important index for assessing the coordinated development relationship between population and water resources. The quantitative evaluation of WRCC can provide an important basis for water resource regulation and sustainable economic and social development. Based on the statistical data of cities and counties in the Great Dunhuang Region (GDR), and taking counties as the basic units, this study quantitatively analyzed the WRCC and carrying status of the GDR under different water inflow conditions and policy constraints from 2010 to 2017. The study revealed three main trends. (1) From 2010 to 2017, the WRCC of the GDR increased year by year, from 343700, 315900 and 291100 people to 458700, 415400 and 375600 people in normal, dry and extremely dry years, respectively. (2) Under policy constraints, the WRCC of the GDR increased year by year from 309400 people in 2010 to 412400 people in 2017. Based on future estimates, the WRCC of the GDR are expected to be 326600 people in 2020 and 341200 people in 2030. (3) From 2010 to 2017, the water resources carrying index of the GDR was decreasing, and it decreased from 1.05, 1.14 and 1.24 to 0.80, 0.88 and 0.97 in normal, dry and extremely dry years, respectively. The carrying status changed from critical overload to balanced. Although the WRCC and the carrying status of the GDR had significantly improved by 2017, the overall upper limit of the carrying capacity is not high. Therefore, efforts should be made to improve the utilization efficiency of water resources in order to maintain the sustainable utilization of water resources in the GDR.