Abstract
Simple SummaryThe spatial distribution and invasion risk of 10 intentionally introduced alien plant species (IIAPS) in South Korea were predicted from a species distribution model via a maximum entropy modeling approach. According to the model predictions, future environmental changes are likely to enlarge the range of the spatial distribution of all studied IIAPS in South Korea except Medicago sativa. We classified the IIAPS into three categories based on their spatial distribution and potential to spread; this revealed that four species (Coreopsis lanceolate, Eragrostis curvula, Ageratina altissima, and Lolium perenne) have the highest potential for invasion. Moreover, we classified invasion risk into three categories, low, moderate, and high, and estimated the area in each category. We found that, under current conditions, much of the country is at low risk (47.96%) of invasion, but by 2050 >54% of the country’s total area will be at high risk of invasion by IIAPS. Serious invasion of IIAPS into cropland, pastures, and forests results in the loss of native biodiversity and damage to the national economy. Therefore, immediate action is required to control and manage IIAPS in South Korea.Predicting the regions at risk of invasion from IIAPS is an integral horizon-scanning activity that plays a crucial role in preventing, controlling, and eradicating invasive species. Here, we quantify the spatial distribution area and invasion risk of IIAPS using a species distribution model under different levels of environmental change in South Korea. From the model predictions, the current average spatial extent of the 10 IIAPS is 33,948 km2, and the individual spatial extents are estimated to change by −7% to 150% by 2050 and by −9% to 156% by 2070. The spatial invasion risk assessment shows that, currently, moderate-to-high invasion risk is limited to coastal areas and densely populated metropolitan cities (e.g., Seoul, Busan, and Gwangju), but that the area with this level of risk is expected to spread toward the central and northern regions of the country in the future, covering 86.21% of the total area of the country by 2070. These results demonstrate that the risk of invasion by IIAPS is estimated to enlarge across the whole country under future environmental changes. The modeling system provided in this study may contribute to the initial control and strategic management of IIAPS to maintain the dynamic ecosystems of South Korea.
Highlights
Invasion risk is the likelihood that non-native species will be introduced to and become established within a novel ecosystem, either intentionally or inadvertently, thereby threatening native biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being [1,2,3]
Our study provides several prominent findings, as follows: (1) Of the nine environmental variables used in the model, land cover change was the most important for the future spatial distribution of introduced alien plant species (IIAPS) (Table 2). (2) Under future scenarios of environmental change in South Korea, alien plant species introduced for a particular purpose will not remain limited to the introduced area but will spread and invade non-targeted ecosystems, including croplands, pasture, and forest
(3) Current invasion risk is estimated to be high in the coastal areas and some densely populated metropolitan cities (e.g., Seoul, Busan, and Gwangju; Figure 6A) but, in the future, invasion risk is predicted to increase in the central and northern regions, leading to approximately 86.21% of the total area of the country being at high or moderate risk of invasion (Figure 6B,C). (4) Extreme climate change may not be favorable overall to alien and invasive species: the relative change in IIAPS coverage was generally lower under climate change scenario representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 8.5 than under RCP 4.5 (Table 4)
Summary
Invasion risk is the likelihood that non-native species will be introduced to and become established within a novel ecosystem, either intentionally or inadvertently, thereby threatening native biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being [1,2,3]. The non-native plant species have some specific functional traits [7,8] that support the introduction, naturalization, and invasion of new areas [9]. They are often ruderal, growing along transportation corridors, irrigation canals, the seashore, and riversides as noxious weeds [10]. Increasing the number of non-native species in some regions amplifies the magnitude of invasion risk [11] Uncontrolled expansion of such species alters the pools and fluxes of an ecosystem and can cause grievous reductions in crop yields, resulting in substantial economic losses [2,12,13,14,15].
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
