Evaluating the invasion risk of longhorn crazy ants (Paratrechina longicornis) in South Korea using spatial distribution model

Abstract

Predicting the potential distribution of longhorn crazy ants using CLIMEX and Maxent and ensemble mapping consensus areas using two models to evaluate the invasion risk in South Korea. • CLIMEX and Maxent were used to evaluate potential longhorn crazy ant distributions. • Temperature-related variables mainly affect the distribution of longhorn crazy ants. • The consensus regions of two models were predicted in response to climate change. • An ensemble map projecting the consensus regions in South Korea was constructed. • Based on this, the invasion risk is high in coastal areas and the southern inland. The longhorn crazy ant ( Paratrechina longicornis ) is a globally distributed ant species with a high invasion risk, suggesting the need to use species distribution modeling to evaluate its potential distribution. Therefore, this study aimed to predict the potential distribution of longhorn crazy ants in response to climate change by using CLIMEX and Maxent and identifying the climatic factors that influence their habitat. Then, the model outcomes were used to construct an ensemble map to evaluate invasion risk in South Korea. The results indicated that temperature-related variables mainly affect the distribution of the longhorn crazy ant, and the two models showed consensus regions in South America, Africa, Australia, and Southeast Asia. Due to climate change, it was expected that the northern limit would somewhat rise. In South Korea, high-risk areas were predicted to be located along the coasts, but they would expand as a consequence of climate change. Since the invasion of longhorn crazy ants has occurred via commercial trades, a relatively high risk in coastal areas demands a high level of attention. We expect that this study will provide initial insight into selecting areas for longhorn crazy ant quarantine with ensemble species distribution modeling.