Assessment of the long‐lead probabilistic prediction for the Asian summer monsoon precipitation (1983–2011) based on the APCC multimodel system and a statistical model

Abstract

The performance of the probabilistic multimodel prediction (PMMP) system of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) in predicting the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) precipitation at a four‐month lead (with February initial condition) was compared with that of a statistical model using hindcast data for 1983–2005 and real‐time forecasts for 2006–2011. Particular attention was paid to probabilistic precipitation forecasts for the boreal summer after the mature phase of El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Taking into account the fact that coupled models' skill for boreal spring and summer precipitation mainly comes from their ability to capture ENSO teleconnection, we developed the statistical model using linear regression with the preceding winter ENSO condition as the predictor. Our results reveal several advantages and disadvantages in both forecast systems. First, the PMMP appears to have higher skills for both above‐ and below‐normal categories in the six‐year real‐time forecast period, whereas the cross‐validated statistical model has higher skills during the 23‐year hindcast period. This implies that the cross‐validated statistical skill may be overestimated. Second, the PMMP is the better tool for capturing atypical ENSO (or non‐canonical ENSO related) teleconnection, which has affected the ASM precipitation during the early 1990s and in the recent decade. Third, the statistical model is more sensitive to the ENSO phase and has an advantage in predicting the ASM precipitation after the mature phase of La Niña.