El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO): A Review

Abstract

The ENSO observing system in the tropical Pacific plays an important role in monitoring ENSO and helping improve the understanding and prediction of ENSO. Occurrence of ENSO has been explained as either a self-sustained and naturally oscillatory mode of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system or a stable mode triggered by stochastic forcing. In either case, ENSO involves the positive ocean-atmosphere feedback hypothesized by Bjerknes. After an El Nino reaches its mature phase, negative feedbacks are required to terminate growth of the mature El Nino anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific. Four negative feedbacks have been proposed: reflected Kelvin waves at the ocean western boundary, a discharge process due to Sverdrup transport, western Pacific wind-forced Kelvin waves, and anomalous zonal advections. These negative feedbacks may work together for terminating El Nino, with their relative importance varying with time. Because of different locations of maximum SST anomalies and associated atmospheric heating, El Nino events are classified as eastern and central Pacific warming events. The identification of two distinct types of El Nino offers a new way to examine global impacts of El Nino and to consider how El Nino may respond and feedback to a changing climate. In addition to interannual variations associated with ENSO, the tropical Pacific SSTs also fluctuate on longer timescales. The patterns of Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) are very similar to those of ENSO. When SST anomalies are positive in the tropical eastern Pacific, they are negative to the west and over the central North and South Pacific, and positive over the tropical Indian Ocean and northeastern portions of the high-latitude Pacific Ocean. Many mechanisms have been proposed for explaining PDV. Changes in ENSO under global warming are uncertain. Increasing greenhouse gases change the mean states in the tropical Pacific, which in turn induce ENSO changes. Due to the fact that the change in mean tropical condition under global warming is quite uncertain, even during the past few decades, it is difficult to say whether ENSO will intensify or weaken, but it is very likely that ENSO will not disappear in the future.