Assessment of the Impact of Pacific Inflow on Sea Surface Temperature Prior to the Freeze-Up Period over the Bering Sea

Abstract

Warm water inflow from the Northeast Pacific has always been considered a crucial factor in early winter freeze-up in the Bering Sea. There is a strong correlation between changes in sea surface temperature (SST) on the eastern Bering Sea shelf and sea ice area in December. However, there is still limited research on the impact of Pacific inflow on SST on the eastern Bering Sea shelf, resulting in insufficient measurements of the impact of Pacific inflow on early freeze-up. In this article, the definition of marine heatwaves (MHW) is used to extract warm events (with a threshold of the 70th percentile) and cold events (with a threshold of the 30th percentile) from the eastern Bering Sea shelf in November. Self-organizing map (SOM) technology is utilized to classify extracted cold and warm events and the mixed-layer heat budget is ultimately used to explore the factors that generate and maintain these cold and warm events. Between 1993 and 2021, a total of 12 warm and 12 cold events are extracted and their cumulative intensity is found to be strongly correlated with the interannual variation in SST by 99.8%, indicating that these warm and cold events are capable of characterizing the interannual variation in SST. Among the 12 warm events, 9 of them can be attributed to abnormal warming of seawater before November and only 3 events are attributed to warm water inflow from the Northeast Pacific. During the development of warm events, there are only two events in which the warm inflow from the Northeast Pacific has a more profound regulatory effect on warm events in November. Moreover, both generation and regulatory factors of cold events are the net air–sea heat flux. Statistics indicate that the warm water inflow from the Northeast Pacific has a limited effect on SST on the eastern Bering Sea shelf during the early freeze-up period. Changes in local SST are more influenced by the residual heat before November and by local net air–sea heat flux. However, we highlight that long-term ocean heatwaves occurring in the Northeast Pacific can enlarge the residual heat of seawater in the eastern Bering Sea shelf before November, thereby impacting early freeze-up. The frequency of such events has significantly increased in the past decade, causing notable changes in the climate and ecosystem of the Bering Sea. Therefore, it is crucial to continue closely monitoring the occurrence and development of such events in the future.