A Large Ensemble Analysis of the Influence of Tropical SSTs on Seasonal Atmospheric Variability

Abstract

Abstract Based on a 40-member ensemble for the January–March (JFM) seasonal mean for the 1980–2000 period using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), interannual variability in the first and second moments of probability density function (PDF) of atmospheric seasonal means with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is analyzed. Based on the strength of the SST anomaly in the Niño-3.4 index region, the years between 1980 and 2000 were additionally categorized into five separate bins extending from strong cold to strong warm El Niño events. This procedure further enhances the size of the ensemble for each SST category. All the AGCM simulations were forced with the observed SSTs, and different ensemble members for specified SST boundary forcing were initiated from different atmospheric initial conditions. The main focus of this analysis is on the changes in the seasonal mean and the internal variability of tropical rainfall and extratropical 200-mb heights with SSTs. For the tropical rainfall, results indicate that in the equatorial tropical Pacific, internal variability of the tropical rainfall anomaly decreases (increases) for the La Niña (El Niño) events. On the other hand, seasonal mean variability of extratropical 200-mb height decreases for the El Niño events. Although there is increase in the seasonal mean variability of 200-mb heights for the La Niña events, results are rather inclusive. Analysis also indicates that for the variables studied, the influence of the interannual variability in SSTs is much stronger on the first moment of seasonal means compared to their influence on the internal variability. As a consequence, seasonal predictability due to changes in SSTs can be attributed primarily to the shift in the PDFs of the seasonal atmospheric means and less to changes in their spread. Modes of internal variability for 200-mb extratropical seasonal mean heights for different SST categories are also analyzed. The dominant mode of internal variability has little dependence on the tropical SST forcing, while larger influence on the second mode of internal variability is found. For SST forcing changing from a La Niña to El Niño state, the spatial pattern of the second mode shifts eastward. For the cold events, the spatial patterns bear more resemblance to the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern, while for the warm events, it more resembles the tropical–North Hemispheric (TNH) pattern. Change in the spatial pattern of this mode from strong cold to a strong warm event resembles the change in the spatial pattern of response in the mean state.