Abstract
Modern economies rely on the efficiency of their transportation sector; however, the environmental impact of the sector remains a growing concern. Among the various proposed solutions, the production and deployment of alternative fuels is a major option. However, concerns exist that the actual availability of sustainable feedstock might lower the current level of ambition. This paper addresses this issue by reviewing recent studies and policy targets, to match forecasts for expected demand and feedstock availability for road, aviation, and maritime sectors in the EU in 2030. The existing literature is fragmented and based on a variety of different approaches, and a consistent assessment of the potential overall demand for transport is still missing. In spite of the challenges posed by the numerous uncertainties, this research provides an estimate of potential European demand for alternative fuels that ranges between 20 and 33 Mtoe. We aimed to answer the question about the availability of sustainable feedstock to cover this potential demand. The analysis confirmed, even under very conservative assumptions, that feedstock may not be the major barrier today. Other issues, such as the feedstock costs, the price volatilities, the existing logistical infrastructures, etc., are relevant aspects contributing to the puzzle. Whilst feedstock is present across European regions, a critical element which requires detailed analysis at the implementation value chain level is the effectiveness of its sustainable mobilisation alongside the synergies and trade-offs that may arise.
Highlights
Introduction published maps and institutional affilAny modern economy relies on the effectiveness on its transport sector
The estimated alternative fuel demand per transport mode was estimated based on the available data and taking into account the current legislative framework
The authors found that based on pre-COVID-19 estimations, the 2030 demand for alternative fuels ranged between 7.0 and 17.7 Mtoe for passenger cars and light-duty vehicles (LDV) and between 8.1 and 9.5 Mtoe for heavy-duty vehicles (HDV)
Summary
Any modern economy relies on the effectiveness on its transport sector. In Europe, the transport industry employs around 10 million people and accounts for about 5% of the gross domestic product (GDP) [1]. Modern transport still heavily depends on fossil resources which pollute heavily and are the reason for the increasing commitments to decarbonisation. There are various possible strategies to reduce the adverse environmental impacts of transport: increasing system efficiency, modal shift, technological improvement for the vectors, and alternative fuels for substituting part of the current oil consumption [2,3,4]. Not all of the available solutions can be successfully implemented across all transport modes at the present time. The road and maritime freight sector, as well as the aviation sector, are currently more rigid against some options, such as electrification or the use of hydrogen, due to the high energy density required to perform the service
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