Assessment of the Dissimilarities of EDI and SPI Measures for Drought Determination in South Africa

Omolola M Adisa,Muthoni Masinde,Joel O Botai

doi:10.3390/w13010082

Omolola M Adisa, Muthoni Masinde + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/w13010082

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Abstract

This study examines the (dis)similarity of two commonly used indices Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) computed over accumulation periods 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month (hereafter SPI-1, SPI-3, SPI-6, and SPI-12, respectively) and Effective Drought Index (EDI). The analysis is based on two drought monitoring indicators (derived from SPI and EDI), namely, the Drought Duration (DD) and Drought Severity (DS) across the 93 South African Weather Service’s delineated rainfall districts over South Africa from 1980 to 2019. In the study, the Pearson correlation coefficient dissimilarity and periodogram dissimilarity estimates were used. The results indicate a positive correlation for the Pearson correlation coefficient dissimilarity and a positive value for periodogram of dissimilarity in both the DD and DS. With the Pearson correlation coefficient dissimilarity, the study demonstrates that the values of the SPI-1/EDI pair and the SPI-3/EDI pair exhibit the highest similar values for DD, while the SPI-6/EDI pair shows the highest similar values for DS. Moreover, dissimilarities are more obvious in SPI-12/EDI pair for DD and DS. When a periodogram of dissimilarity is used, the values of the SPI-1/EDI pair and SPI-6/EDI pair exhibit the highest similar values for DD, while SPI-1/EDI displayed the highest similar values for DS. Overall, the two measures show that the highest similarity is obtained in the SPI-1/EDI pair for DS. The results obtainable in this study contribute towards an in-depth knowledge of deviation between the EDI and SPI values for South Africa, depicting that these two drought indices values are replaceable in some rainfall districts of South Africa for drought monitoring and prediction, and this is a step towards the selection of the appropriate drought indices.

Highlights

Published: 1 January 2021South Africa’s water resources, food security, infrastructure, health, as well as its ecosystem facilities, and biodiversity are threatened by climate change [1]
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values for South Africa, depicting that these two drought indices values are replaceable in some rainfall districts of South Africa for drought monitoring and prediction, and this is a step towards the selection of the appropriate drought indices
When SPI-12/Effective Drought Index (EDI) pair values (Figures 9D and 10D) were compared, the results show that strong dissimilarity was detected for 40% of the rainfall districts in both GT and Northern Cape (NC) provinces, 35% in Eastern Cape (EC) province, and 30% in both MP and North West (NW) provinces

Summary

Introduction

Published: 1 January 2021South Africa’s water resources, food security, infrastructure, health, as well as its ecosystem facilities, and biodiversity are threatened by climate change [1]. The impacts are spread across several sectors of the economy, such as agriculture, water, tourism, transport, energy, and ecosystem [3] These impacts are associated with the death of livestock, rivers, and reservoirs drying up, crops wilt, and socio-economic loss [4]. (2016–2018), South Africa has experienced a lengthy drought period [6,7] that has affected both water resources and agricultural production, with the effects already propagated into the socio-economic systems.

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