Assessment of sustainable agricultural development based on the water-energy-food nexus framework in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River, China.

Abstract

Water, energy and food are inextricably linked in agricultural system. Social and environmental issues arising from socio-economic development pose new challenges for sustainable agricultural development. Achieving sustainable agriculture from the perspective of water, energy and food resource conservation is of critical importance to the national strategy for high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin in China. In this study, the mass productivity and economic productivity of water and energy in agricultural system were considered, and an integrated assessment index system for agricultural system based on the Water-Energy-Food Nexus (WEFN) was proposed in three dimensions: reliability, coordination and resilience. Based on these indicators, the agricultural water-energy-food nexus index (AWEFNI) and integrated risk index (IRI) were performed to assess the current status of agricultural development in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River. Results indicate that the AWEFNI in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River is increasing year by year, and the level of sustainable agricultural development is improving, but the overall level is lower. The AWEFNI values vary widely among provinces. The reliability of single subsystem in the study area accounts for more than 1/3 of the AWEFNI, with poor water endowment， rich food and energy resource endowments, the coordination of the AWEFN is weakening. The resilience of the third subsystem is gradually declining. The contradiction in water and energy supply and demand in Ningxia is the most prominent among the five provinces, and the level of AWEFN development is the lowest, so the regulation policies should be implemented as soon as possible to promote the synergistic development of AWEFN around the region.