Assessment of Future Water Security under Climate Change: Practical Water Allocation Scenarios in a Drought-Prone Watershed in South Korea

Abstract

Seomijn River Basin has numerous hydraulic structures designed to satisfy water demands and mitigate future droughts. However, the increasing water demand and export to neighboring areas cause water deficits and conflicts between water users. Therefore, practical strategies to mitigate the potential damage from climate change are essential. In this study, we aimed to propose practical strategies under climate change by examining the future water security of the Seomjin River Basin under five different water allocation scenarios referenced from the practical policies of various countries. Future climate models determined based on extreme precipitation indices of the ETCCDI were used to investigate their impact on water security, which was evaluated using unmet demand; demand coverage; reliability, resilience, and vulnerability; and aggregation index metrics. We found that prioritizing domestic and industrial water use is the optimal water security strategy, and unconditional allocation of instream flow can cause a significant water deficit for other water uses. However, prioritizing all water uses equally also proved effective under some conditions. Thus, our study highlights the importance of adaptive management and suggests that the optimal water allocation strategy lies in its flexibility in response to varying circumstances.